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May 31, 2013

Paul Allen's Account of the Founding of Microsoft




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Source of book image: http://www.entrepreneur.com/dbimages/slideshow/idea-man-paul-allen.jpg



(p. C6) The first half of "Idea Man" sets forth Mr. Allen's version of the Microsoft creation myth, depicting Mr. Gates as a petulant, ambitious and money-minded mogul-to-be and Mr. Allen as an underappreciated visionary. Pictures of them from the 1970s and early '80s also tell this story, making Mr. Allen look like a hirsute, powerful older brother and Mr. Gates like a kid.


. . .


"Idea Man" is long overdue. It turns out to be as remote, yet as surpassingly strange, as its author, whose receipt of a diagnosis of Stage 4 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2009 has made it that much more important for him to tell his story. Though it is written in the smoothly proficient style of many a collaborator-assisted memoir, it is a book filled with wild extremes: breakthrough, breakup, power, indulgence, blue-sky innovation. And it winds up offering Mr. Allen's guarded, partial answer to a universal question: what if you could make your wildest dreams come true?



For the full review, see:

JANET MASLIN. "BOOKS OF THE TIMES; The Reclusive Other Half of Microsoft's Odd Couple Breaks His Silence." The New York Times (Tues., April 19, 2011): C6.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date April 18, 2011.)


The book under review is:

Allen, Paul. Idea Man: A Memoir by the Cofounder of Microsoft. New York: Portfolio, 2011.






May 30, 2013

MOOCs "Will Really Scale" Once Credible Credentialing Process Is Mastered





A "MOOC" is a "massive open online course."


(p. 1) Last May I wrote about Coursera -- co-founded by the Stanford computer scientists Daphne Koller and Andrew Ng -- just after it opened. Two weeks ago, I went back out to Palo Alto to check in on them. When I visited last May, about 300,000 people were taking 38 courses taught by Stanford professors and a few other elite universities. Today, they have 2.4 million students, taking 214 courses from 33 universities, including eight international ones.

Anant Agarwal, the former director of M.I.T.'s artificial intelligence lab, is now president of edX, a nonprofit MOOC that M.I.T. and Harvard are jointly building. Agarwal told me that since May, some 155,000 students from around the world have taken edX's first course: an M.I.T. intro class on circuits. "That is greater than the total number of M.I.T. alumni in its 150-year history," he said.


. . .


(p. 11) As we look to the future of higher education, said the M.I.T. president, L. Rafael Reif, something that we now call a "degree" will be a concept "connected with bricks and mortar" -- and traditional on-campus experiences that will increasingly leverage technology and the Internet to enhance classroom and laboratory work. Alongside that, though, said Reif, many universities will offer online courses to students anywhere in the world, in which they will earn "credentials" -- certificates that testify that they have done the work and passed all the exams. The process of developing credible credentials that verify that the student has adequately mastered the subject -- and did not cheat -- and can be counted on by employers is still being perfected by all the MOOCs. But once it is, this phenomenon will really scale.

I can see a day soon where you'll create your own college degree by taking the best online courses from the best professors from around the world -- some computing from Stanford, some entrepreneurship from Wharton, some ethics from Brandeis, some literature from Edinburgh -- paying only the nominal fee for the certificates of completion. It will change teaching, learning and the pathway to employment. "There is a new world unfolding," said Reif, "and everyone will have to adapt."



For the full commentary, see:

THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN. "Revolution Hits the Universities." The New York Times, SundayReview Section (Sun., January 27, 2013): 1 & 11.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date January 26, 2013.)






May 29, 2013

When Howard Phillips Was Told He Could Not Dismantle His Agency, He Resigned




PhillipsHowardOfficeOfEconomicOpportunity2013-05-12.jpg

"Mr. Phillips [on left] was named the head of the Office of Economic Opportunity in 1973 during President Richard M. Nixon's administration." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT obituary quoted and cited below.


(p. A24) Howard J. Phillips, a pillar of conservative activism who ran for president three times on the ticket of a political party he helped found, died . . . at his home in Vienna, Va. He was 72.

. . .


Mr. Phillips's integrity as a conservative was on display in President Richard M. Nixon's administration. In early 1973, the president signaled his intention to withhold financing from the Office of Economic Opportunity, an antipoverty agency with roots in President Lyndon B. Johnson's war on poverty. The president named Mr. Phillips acting director and charged him with dismantling it.

"I believe Richard Nixon epitomizes the American dream and represents all that is great in America," Mr. Phillips said at the time.

Nixon was unable to carry out his plans, however, after Democrats successfully sued to prevent him from starving an agency that Congress had authorized. And when Nixon yielded and continued to finance Johnson's Great Society programs, Mr. Phillips considered the president to have broken his word and resigned.



For the full obituary, see:

BRUCE WEBER. "Howard J. Phillips, Stalwart Conservative, Dies at 72." The New York Times (Thurs., April 25, 2013): A24.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed words in caption, added.)

(Note: the online version of the obituary has the date April 23, 2013.)






May 28, 2013

Modern Cities Are "Successful Former Slums" that Allowed "Vibrant Economic Activity"




(p. 82) Babylon, London, and New York all had teeming ghettos of unwanted settlers erecting shoddy shelters with inadequate hygiene and engaging in dodgy dealings. Historian Bronislaw Geremek states that "slums constituted a large part of the urban landscape" of Paris in the Middle Ages. Even by the 1780s, when Paris was at its peak, nearly 20 percent of its residents did not have a "fixed abode"--that is, they lived in shacks. In a familiar complaint about medieval French cities, a gentleman from that time noted: "Several families inhabit one house. A (p. 83) weaver's family may be crowded into a single room, where they huddle around a fireplace." That refrain is repeated throughout history. A century ago Manhattan was home to 20,000 squatters in self-made housing. Slab City alone, in Brooklyn (named after the use of planks stolen from lumber mills), contained 10,000 residents in its slum at its peak in the 1880s. In the New York slums, reported the New York Times in 1858, "nine out of ten of the shanties have only one room, which does not average over twelve feet square, and this serves all the purposes of the family."

San Francisco was built by squatters. As Rob Neuwirth recounts in his eye-opening book Shadow Cities, one survey in 1855 estimated that "95 percent of the property holders in [San Francisco] would not be able to produce a bona fide legal title to their land." Squatters were everywhere, in the marshes, sand dunes, military bases. One eyewitness said, "Where there was a vacant piece of ground one day, the next saw it covered with half a dozen tents or shanties." Philadelphia was largely settled by what local papers called "squatlers." As late as 1940, one in five citizens in Shanghai was a squatter. Those one million squatters stayed and kept upgrading their slum so that within one generation their shantytown became one of the first twenty-first-century cities.

That's how it works. This is how all technology works. A gadget begins as a junky prototype and then progresses to something that barely works. The ad hoc shelters in slums are upgraded over time, infrastructure is extended, and eventually makeshift services become official. What was once the home of poor hustlers becomes, over the span of generations, the home of rich hustlers. Propagating slums is what cities do, and living in slums is how cities grow. The majority of neighborhoods in almost every modern city are merely successful former slums. The squatter cities of today will become the blue-blood neighborhoods of tomorrow. This is already happening in Rio and Mumbai today.

Slums of the past and slums of today follow the same description. The first impression is and was one of filth and overcrowding. In a ghetto a thousand years ago and in a slum today shelters are haphazard and dilapidated. The smells are overwhelming. But there is vibrant economic activity.



Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.

(Note: italics, and bracketed "San Francisco" in original.)






May 27, 2013

How Electricity Matters for Life




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Source of book image:
http://media.npr.org/assets/bakertaylor/covers/t/the-spark-of-life/9780393078039_custom-86637e64da2201ed3081e0f26f40e0d139cbbf9d-s6-c10.jpg




(p. C9) Top-drawer scientists always are excited about their field, but many have difficulty conveying this to a general audience. Not so Frances Ashcroft. She is a distinguished physiologist at Oxford University whose work has provided crucial insight into how insulin secretion is connected to electrical activity in cells. Her research has meant that children born with one form of diabetes can control it using oral medication instead of regular and painful insulin injections.

After Ms. Ashcroft made her breakthrough in 1984, she felt as if she were "dancing in the air, shot high into the sky on the rocket of excitement with the stars exploding in vivid colours all around me," she writes in her engaging and informative "The Spark of Life: Electricity in the Human Body." Even today, thinking of it "sends excitement fizzing through my veins."

Like so much else in our bodies, insulin secretion depends on crucial proteins in the cell walls that regulate the flow of ions (electrically charged atoms or molecules) between the interior of the cell and the fluids that surround it. The ions, mostly sodium, potassium and calcium, literally provide "the spark of life." Ms. Ashcroft uses her research into cellular "ion channels" as an overture to a rich and stimulating account of how electricity and the varied ways in which animals and plants produce it explain so much of evolutionary biology.


. . .


. . . all of Ms. Ashcroft's themes and variations represent facets of the same underlying ionic mechanism. In describing its wonders, she has produced a gem that sparkles.



For the full review, see:

WILLIAM BYNUM. "Singing the Body Electric." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., September 29, 2012): C9.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date September 28, 2012.)



The book under review, is:

Ashcroft, Frances. The Spark of Life: Electricity in the Human Body. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2012.






May 26, 2013

Harry Reid Hires GE Employee to Be His Chief Tax Policy Advisor





The "Capture Theory" associated with scholars George Stigler and Gabriel Kolko says that government regulatory bodies tend to be captured by the companies that they are intended to regulate. Stigler and Kolko would not be surprised by the passage quoted below.


(p. B5) . . . on Jan. 25, Mr. Reid's office announced that he had appointed Cathy Koch as chief adviser to the majority leader for tax and economic policy. The news release lists Ms. Koch's admirable and formidable experience in the public sector. "Prior to joining Senator Reid's office," the release says, "Koch served as tax chief at the Senate Finance Committee."

It's funny, though. The notice left something out. Because immediately before joining Mr. Reid's office, Ms. Koch wasn't in government. She was working for a large corporation.

Not just any corporation, but quite possibly the most influential company in America, and one that arguably stands to lose the most if there were any serious tax reform that closed corporate loopholes. Ms. Koch arrives at the senator's office by way of General Electric.

Yes, General Electric, the company that paid almost no taxes in 2010. Just as the tax reform debate is heating up, Mr. Reid has put in place a person who is extraordinarily positioned to torpedo any tax reform that might draw a dollar out of G.E. -- and, by extension, any big corporation.

Omitting her last job from the announcement must have merely been an oversight. By the way, no rules prevent Ms. Koch from meeting with G.E. or working on issues that would affect the company.



For the full story, see:

JESSE EISINGER, ProPublica. "A Revolving Door in Washington With Spin, but Less Visibility." The New York Times (Thurs., February 21, 2013): B5.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date February 20, 2013.)






May 25, 2013

Small Nuclear Reactor Is Easier to Cool and Protect





NuclearReactorSmaller2013-05-12.jpg

"A rendering of a smaller nuclear reactor being developed by Babcock & Wilcox for the Tennessee Valley Authority." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.




(p. B6) "WASHINGTON -- The Tennessee Valley Authority will pay Babcock & Wilcox, a nuclear equipment company, to complete extensive design work and apply for permission to build a new kind of nuclear plant, a "small modular reactor," at a site in Oak Ridge, Tenn., the T.V.A. and the company announced . . . .

The two entities did not disclose the value of the contract, which will be paid in part by the Energy Department under a program to encourage nuclear innovation. The announcement is a step forward in a program that advocates hope will develop a new class of nuclear plants that can be mostly built in a factory, shipped by rail or barge, deployed quickly, and sold around the world, especially in places where the power grid could not handle a big plant.

"This technology is very different," said Joe Hoagland, a senior vice president of the T.V.A. "It has built-in safety features and security features, so you can site it at places you wouldn't site a large reactor."

Because the reactors are relatively small, the idea is that in an emergency they can be cooled with the natural circulation of water and heat, rather than by systems that require pumps and valves and that could be disabled by power failures or human errors. The goal for Babcock & Wilcox is a reactor that can be operated by a relatively small control room crew, perhaps two operators, and meet security requirements with fewer guards."




For the full story, see:

MATTHEW L. WALD. "Deal Advances Development of a Smaller Nuclear Reactor." The New York Times (Thurs., February 21, 2013): B6.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date February 20, 2013.)






May 24, 2013

Technology Brings Choices and Control, Which Brings Happiness




(p. 78) For the past 30 years the conventional wisdom has been that once a person achieves a minimal standard of living, more money does not bring more happiness. If you live below a certain income threshold, increased money makes a difference, but after that, it doesn't buy happiness. That was the conclusion of a now-classic study by Richard Easterlin in 1974. However, recent research from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania shows that worldwide, affluence brings increased satisfaction. Higher income earners are happier. Citizens in higher-earning countries tend to be more satisfied on average.

My interpretation of this newest research--which also matches our intuitive impressions--is that what money brings is increased choices, rather than merely increased stuff (although more stuff comes with the territory). We don't find happiness in more gadgets and experiences. We do find happiness in having some control of our time and work, a chance for real leisure, in the escape from the uncertainties of war, poverty, and corruption, and in a chance to pursue individual freedoms--all of which come with increased affluence.

I've been to many places in the world, the poorest and the richest spots, the oldest and the newest cities, the fastest and the slowest cultures, and it is my observation that when given a chance, people who walk will buy a bicycle, people who ride a bike will get a scooter, people riding a scooter will upgrade to a car, and those with a car dream of a plane. Farmers everywhere trade their ox plows for tractors, their gourd bowls for tin ones, their sandals for shoes. Always. Insignificantly few ever go back. The exceptions such as the well-known Amish are not so exceptional when examined closely, for even their communities adopt selected technology without retreat.



Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.

(Note: italics in original.)






May 23, 2013

Wealth from Innovation Is Nobler than Wealth from Litigation




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Source of book image: http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/15/60/06/3604871/3/628x471.jpg




(p. C7) In business, Green routinely sued her competitors. . . .


. . .


It was precisely Green's vision of life as a zero-sum game, a match between enemies, that proved her flaw. She appreciated the idea that dollars compound, but she never seemed to grasp that the compounding of ideas, innovation, is just as important, that in certain, non-litigious, environments ideas "fructify," to use a period verb. Litigation like Green's prevented the kind of innovation in which she might have wanted to invest. Wealth is created when Apple beats Samsung, but more wealth is created when Apple comes up with a new phone.



For the full review, see:

AMITY SHLAES. "Quarrelsome Queen of the Gilded Age." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., September 29, 2012): C7.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date September 28, 2012.)



The book under review, is:

Wallach, Janet. The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age. New York: Nan A. Talese, 2012.






May 22, 2013

The Difference Between Bogart's Smart and Sinatra's Cool




(p. A11) Everyone loved Old Blue Eyes and mourned him when he died in 1998. Everyone except Michael Kelly.

Kelly hated Frank because Frank had invented Cool, and Cool had replaced Smart. What was Smart? It was Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca: "He possesses an outward cynicism, but at his core he is a square. . . . He is willing to die for his beliefs, and his beliefs are, although he takes pains to hide it, old-fashioned. He believes in truth, justice, the American way, and love. . . . When there is a war, he goes to it. . . . He may be world weary, but he is not ironic."

Cool was something else. "Cool said the old values were for suckers. . . . Cool didn't go to war; Saps went to war, and anyway, cool had no beliefs he was willing to die for. Cool never, ever, got in a fight it might lose; cool had friends who could take care of that sort of thing."

It never, ever would have occurred to me to make the distinction until I read Kelly's column. And then I understood Sinatra. And then I understood Kelly, too.



For the full commentary, see:

BRET STEPHENS. "GLOBAL VIEW; Remembering Michael Kelly; A columnist who hated phonies, stood for truth, and died for his beliefs." The Wall Street Journal (Tues., April 2, 2013): A11.

(Note: ellipses in original.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date April 1, 2013.)






May 21, 2013

Governments Stop Errol Joseph from Repairing His House




JosephErrolNewOrleansHouseFixer2013-05-04.jpg "Errol Joseph and his wife, Esther, at their Forstall Street property in New Orleans. Mr. Joseph, 62, had spent his life fixing houses." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.


(p. A1) NEW ORLEANS -- Errol Joseph has the doorknobs. He has the doors, too, as well as a bathtub and a couple of sinks, stacks of drywall, a hot water heater, pipes, an air-conditioner compressor, and big pink rolls of insulation. They are sitting in a shed.

A few blocks up the street sits the gaunt frame of a house, the skeleton in which all these insides are supposed to fit. They have sat apart for years. The gap between: permits, procedures, policies, rules and the capricious demands of bureaucracy.

As people in the Northeast set off on the road back from Hurricane Sandy, there are those here, like Mr. Joseph, who are keen to offer warnings that recovery can be far more difficult than they imagine. Mr. Joseph sees his own story as a cautionary tale, though he admits he is unsure what he would have, or should have, done differently.

"Do the right thing and fall further behind," said Mr. Joseph, a big man with a soft voice.


. . .


(p. A4) But Mr. Joseph, who had spent his life repairing houses, figured he could do it himself, and would be back at home by that summer. He spent most of his rebuilding grant buying materials, including windows, shingles and everything else in the shed. In the spring of 2009, he elevated the frame of the house, leaving it propped on wooden cribbing.

Before he took any further steps, he contacted the state for an inspection, as he had been instructed.

Then the inspectors showed up.

" 'Do not do anything to this house until you get a letter of continuance,' " he recalled one inspector saying. "He said that three times. He said you would lose your money."

So Mr. Joseph did not do anything to the house. Months went by. No letter arrived. The inspector disappeared. Officials denied that anyone had ever said anything about a letter, said Mr. Joseph, who in his regular visits to state offices would then ask for written permission to move forward anyway.

In 2010, told that he would not be allowed to do the work himself, he drew up a contract with an elevation specialist. But permission from the state to move forward was still elusive. "Your paperwork is in the system," Mr. Joseph was told.

Though Mr. Joseph did not know it, his paperwork was blocked for months in the federal clearance process, but for reasons that remain a mystery.

The drywall rotted in the shed. The frame sat in the elements. The city, unaware of Mr. Joseph's travails, warned of demolition.



For the full story, see:

CAMPBELL ROBERTSON. "Katrina Rebuilder Can't Rise Above Red Tape." The New York Times (Thurs., February 21, 2012): A1 & A4.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date February 20, 2012, and has the title "Routed by Katrina, Stuck in Quagmire of Rules.")


JosephErroBlockAfterKatrina2013-05-04.jpg "A photograph of Mr. Joseph's block taken shortly after Hurricane Katrina. It took years to prove his house was salvageable." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited above.






May 20, 2013

"Lowest-Paid Burger Flipper" Is "Better Off than King Henry"




(p. 76) After going from room to room, skipping none except the garage (that would be a project in itself), we arrived at a total of 6,000 varieties of things in our house. Since we have multiple examples of some varieties, such as books, CDs, paper plates, spoons, socks, on so on, I estimate the total number of objects in our home, including the garage, to be close to 10,000.

Without trying very hard, our typical modern house holds a king's ransom. But in fact, we are wealthier than King Henry. In fact, the lowest-paid burger flipper working at McDonald's is in many respects (p. 77) better off than King Henry or any of the richest people living not too long ago. Although the burger flipper barely makes enough to pay the rent, he or she can afford many things that King Henry could not. King Henry's wealth--the entire treasure of England--could not have purchased an indoor flush toilet or air-conditioning or secured a comfortable ride for 500 kilometers. Any taxicab driver can afford these today. Only 100 years ago, John Rockefeller's vast fortune as the world's richest man could not have gotten him the cell phone that any untouchable street sweeper in Bombay now uses. In the first half of the 19th century Nathan Rothschild was the richest man in the world. His millions were not enough to buy an antibiotic. Rothschild died of an infected abscess that could have been cured with a three-dollar tube of neomycin today. Although King Henry had some fine clothes and a lot of servants, you could not pay people today to live as he did, without plumbing, in dark, drafty rooms, isolated from the world by impassable roads and few communication connections. A poor university student living in a dingy dorm room in Jakarta lives better in most ways than King Henry.



Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.






May 19, 2013

Cooking Allowed the Toothless to Live




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Source of book image: http://d.gr-assets.com/books/1344733081l/13587130.jpg




(p. C12) . . . the narrative, ragtag though it may be, is a good one and it starts with the single greatest achievement in cookware--the cooking pot. Originally made of clay, this simple invention allowed previously inedible foods to be cooked in water, a process that removed toxins, made them digestible and reduced the need for serious chewing, a deadly problem for the toothless. (Archaeologists find adult skeletons without teeth only at sites dating from after the invention of the cooking pot.)


. . .


When "Consider the Fork" turns to cultural history, Ms. Wilson's points sometimes contradict one another. On one hand, she slyly condemns the rich throughout history and their use of cheap cooking labor. Yet she also relates how the Lebanese writer Anissa Helou remembers kibbé being made in Beirut by her mother and grandmother: They pounded the lamb in a mortar and pestle for an hour, a process described in loving terms. So is cooking labor a bedrock of family values or class exploitation?



For the full review, see:

CHRISTOPHER KIMBALL. "The World on a Plate." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., October 6, 2012): C12.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date October 5, 2012.)



The book under review, is:

Wilson, Bee. Consider the Fork: A History of How We Cook and Eat. New York: Basic Books, 2012.






May 18, 2013

Berkshire Buys Big into DaVita, Firm Accused of Medicare Fraud





Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway apparently has a large stake in DaVita Healthcare Partners. An earlier entry on this blog discussed accusations that DaVita Healthcare Partners has committed substantial healthcare fraud by charging the taxpayer millions of dollars for medicine that is needlessly thrown away. Apparently the DaVita investment is due to Ted Weschler, one of two deputies to whom Buffett has delegated the investment of some of Berkshire's funds.


(p. 3D) Weschler is believed to be behind Berkshire's aggressive move into DaVita Healthcare Partners -- a stock he owned when he ran his own hedge fund. Berkshire bought 10.9 million shares last year, becoming Da-Vita's largest stakeholder with 15.7 percent of the company. DaVita provides kidney dialy­sis services and is seen as a consistent cash-flow genera­tor. In November, the company closed its $4.7 billion purchase of Healthcare Partners, one of the country's largest operators of medical groups and physi­cian networks. DaVita shares rose more than 35 percent in the past 12 months.


For the full story, see:


MarketWatch . "Buffett was avid hunter of 6 stocks last year; Wells Fargo, GM and DirecTV top Berkshire's list." Omaha World-Herald (Tues., March 12, 2013): 1D & 3D.






May 17, 2013

21st Century Person Would Be Sick in Dickens' 1850 London




NancyFromOliverTwist2013-05-04.jpg "Anderson found Dickens World to be "surprisingly grisly" for a park that markets itself to children; he noted several severed heads and a gruesome performance of "Oliver Twist" in the courtyard. Here, a mannequin of Nancy from "Oliver Twist."" Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.


(p. 48) . . . even if it were possible to create a lavish simulacrum of 1850s London -- with its typhus and cholera and clouds of toxic corpse gas, its sewage pouring into the Thames, its (p. 49) average life span of 27 years -- why would anyone want to visit? ("If a late-20th-century person were suddenly to find himself in a tavern or house of the period," Peter Ackroyd, a Dickens biographer, has written, "he would be literally sick -- sick with the smells, sick with the food, sick with the atmosphere around him.")


For the full story, see:

SAM ANDERSON. "VOYAGES; The Pippiest Place on Earth." The New York Times Magazine (Sun., February 7, 2012): 48-53.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date February 7, 2012 (sic), and has the title "VOYAGES; The World of Charles Dickens, Complete With Pizza Hut.")






May 16, 2013

New Technology Gets Better, Cheaper and More Diverse




(p. 75) Devices not only get better, they also get cheaper while they get better. We turn around to peer through our window into the past and realize there wasn't window glass back then. The past also lacked machine-woven cloth, refrigerators, steel, photographs, and the entire warehouse of goods spilling into the aisles of our local superstore. We can trace this cornucopia back along a diminishing curve to the Neolithic era. Craft from ancient times can surprise us in its sophistication, but in sheer quantity, variety, and complexity, it pales against modern inventions. The proof of this is clear: We buy the new over the old. Given the choice between an old-fashioned tool and a new one, most people--in the past as well as now--would grab the newer one. A very few will collect old tools, but as big as eBay is, and flea markets anywhere in the world, they are dwarfed by the market of the new. But if the new is not really better, and we keep reaching for it, then we are consistently duped or consistently dumb. The more likely reason we seek the new is that new things do get better. And of course there are more new things to choose from.


Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.






May 15, 2013

Were Phone Phreaks Creative Incipient Entrepreneurs or Destructive "Sophomoric Savants"?




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Source of book image: http://img1.imagesbn.com/p/9780802120618_p0_v2_s260x420.JPG



(p. C6) Mr. Lapsley also describes John Draper, aka Captain Crunch, who was probably the most celebrated of the phreakers; his nickname derived from the fact that whistles that used to come in Cap'n Crunch cereal boxes happened to generate the key 2600-Hz tone used in long-distance switching. . . .

The phone-phreak netherworld was introduced to a mass audience by the October 1971 issue of Esquire magazine, which included what has to be (at least indirectly) one of the most influential articles ever written: Ron Rosenbaum's "Secrets of the Little Blue Box." Not only did it turn phreakers into folk heroes, but it inspired two young men, Steve Wozniak (who provided the foreword for this book) and Steve Jobs, to construct and sell blue boxes. Going door to door in Berkeley dorms, they managed to sell several dozen at $170 each. The "two Steves" savored this mix of clever engineering and entrepreneurial hustle: As Mr. Lapsley quotes Jobs saying: "If we hadn't made blue boxes, there would have been no Apple." (Mr. Rosenbaum's article also put the "phreak" into "phone phreak.")

. . .: By the 1980s, computerized phone systems and fiber-optic cables rendered many of the old phreaking modes obsolete. In addition, I can't help suspecting that the breakup of AT&T in 1984--the result of an antitrust lawsuit filed by the federal government--deeply discouraged the hard-core phreaks. Surreptitiously penetrating one of the shriveled new regional phone companies must have seemed a paltry caper compared with taking on mighty, majestic AT&T.


. . .


I must, however, take issue with one of Mr. Lapsley's conclusions. In reflecting on the phreaks' legacy, he writes: "The phone phreaks taught us that there is a societal benefit to tolerating, perhaps even nurturing (in the words of Apple) the crazy ones--the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers." Is that truly what they taught us? . . .

Wilt Chamberlain supposedly once said that "nobody roots for Goliath." Perhaps. But the lesson to be learned from those waging guerrilla war against giants like the phone company and the Internet is that sophomoric savants who tamper with society's indispensable systems ultimately harm all too many innocent people.



For the full review, see:

HOWARD SCHNEIDER. "BOOKSHELF; Playing Tricks on Ma Bell." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., February 2, 2013): C6.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date February 1, 2013.)



The book under review, is:

Lapsley, Phil. Exploding the Phone: The Untold Story of the Teenagers and Outlaws Who Hacked Ma Bell. New York: Grove Press, 2013.






May 14, 2013

Much of Human Genome Consists of Usually-Inactive Ancient Retrovirus Genes




(p. C4) Might some forms of neurological illness, such as multiple sclerosis and schizophrenia, be caused at least partly by bacteria, viruses or other parasites? A largely Danish team has recently published evidence of a strong association between multiple sclerosis and a retrovirus, together with hints that a gene called TRIM5, which is used by cells to fight viruses, is especially active in people with MS.


. . .


The virus implicated in multiple sclerosis is called HERV-Fc1, a bizarre beast called an "endogenous" retrovirus. What this means is that its genes are part of the human genome. For millions of years, they have been integrated into our own DNA and passed on by normal heredity. It was one of the shocks of genomic science to find that the human genome contains more retroviral than "human" genes: some 5% to 8% of the entire genome.

Normally, the genes of endogenous retroviruses remain dormant, but--a bit like a computer virus that springs into action on a trigger--something wakes them up sometimes, and actual viruses are made from them, which then infect other cells in the body. The Danish scientists suggest that this is what happens in multiple sclerosis. Bjørn Nexø of Aarhus University writes that "retroviral infections often develop into running battles between the immune system and virus, with the virus mutating repeatedly to avoid the immune system, and the immune system repeatedly catching up. One can see the episodic nature of multiple sclerosis as such a running battle."



For the full commentary, see:

MATT RIDLEY. "MIND & MATTER; The Good News About the Virus in Your Genes." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., March 10, 2012): C4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date March 9, 2012.)





May 13, 2013

Chinese Couples Divorce to Avoid Government Regulations and Taxes




ShanghaiRealEstateMob2013-05-04.jpg "A police officer attempted to stop residents from rushing into a real estate trading center in Shanghai after new restrictions were announced." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.


(p. A4) SHANGHAI -- When the Chinese government announced new curbs on property prices this month, homeowners bombarded social networking sites with complaints. They formed long lines at property bureaus to register to sell their homes before the restrictions went into effect.

And some couples went even further: they filed for divorce.

Divorce filings shot up here and in other big cities across China this past week after rumors spread that one way to avoid the new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales was to separate from a spouse, at least on paper.

The surge in divorce filings is the latest indication of how volatile an issue real estate has become in China in the past decade and how resistant people are to additional taxes.


. . .


On Friday, at a marriage registration center in the Pudong district, a 33-year-old woman named Frances Tao arrived with her husband. She acknowledged that they were filing for divorce, not to avoid the 20 percent capital gains tax on second homes, but to get around another restriction, which requires home buyers to put down a much higher deposit on a second home than on a primary residence.

Ms. Tao said that by divorcing, one of them would be able to purchase a first home and put down less money and get a better interest rate.

"We don't have other choices," Ms. Tao said. "But the government and developers continue to make a lot of money."



For the full story, see:

DAVID BARBOZA. "In China, Checklist for a Home Seller: First, Get a Divorce." The New York Times (Sat., March 9, 2012): A4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 8, 2012.)






May 12, 2013

Knowledge Economy Migrating to Intangible Goods and Services




(p. 67) Our present economic migration from a material-based industry to a knowledge economy of intangible goods (such as software, design, and media products) is just the latest in a steady move toward the immaterial. (Not that material processing has let up, just that intangible processing is now more economically valuable.) Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says, "Data from nearly all parts of the world show us that consumers tend to spend relatively less on goods and more on services as their incomes rise. . . . Once people have met their basic needs, they tend to want medical care, transportation and communication, information, recreation, entertainment, financial and legal advice, and the like." The disembodiment of value (more value, less mass) is a steady trend in the technium. In six years the average weight per dollar of U.S. exports (the most valuable things the U.S. produces) (p. 68) dropped by half. Today, 40 percent of U.S. exports are services (intangibles) rather than manufactured goods (atoms). We are steadily substituting intangible design, flexibility, innovation, and smartness for rigid, heavy atoms. In a very real sense our entry into a service- and idea-based economy is a continuation of a trend that began at the big bang.


Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.

(Note: ellipsis in original; a graph is omitted that appears in the middle of the paragraph quoted above.)






May 11, 2013

The Process of Picking a Pope




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Source of book image: http://yalepress.yale.edu/yupbooks/images/full13/9780300115970.jpg



(p. C3) The popes appointed by the German Holy Roman Emperor Henry III in the early 11th century were . . . unconventional but . . . edifying. Determined to purge the corruptions of Rome, Henry personally appointed four outstanding popes, reformers to a man, all of them Germans. The greatest of them, St. Leo IX (1049-1054), arrived in Rome as a barefoot pilgrim and was the first pope to travel widely through Europe, stirring local bishops to tackle corruption and undertake renewal.

Henry III's German popes ended the tradition that the Bishop of Rome had to be a local man, and medieval conclaves chose popes from the small but international College of Cardinals. Exceptions to this rule were seldom a success.

The most notorious case was St. Celestine V (1294), an 85-year-old hermit and visionary from Naples chosen in the hope that an "angelic Pope" would free the papacy from its financial and political entanglements. But the old man was hopelessly incompetent and easily swayed by forceful politicians. After only six months, he was badgered into resigning by Cardinal Benedetto Caetani, who succeeded him as Boniface VIII and promptly imprisoned him.

The experiment of electing a non-cardinal was tried again in 1378. After a run of seven French popes based in Avignon, the Roman mob demanded an Italian. Sixteen terrified cardinals obliged by electing Urban VI. A distinguished administrator as Archbishop of Bari, Urban VI was unhinged by his elevation. Aggressively paranoid, he alienated all supporters and appears to have murdered five of his cardinals. The French cardinals elected a rival pope, who returned to Avignon, starting a schism that would last a generation.



For the full commentary, see:

EAMON DUFFY. "When Picking A Pope Was A Perilous Affair." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., February 16, 2013): C3.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date February 15, 2013.)



Duffy's related book, is:

Duffy, Eamon. Saints and Sinners: A History of the Popes. Third ed., Yale Nota Bene. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006.






May 10, 2013

Stem-Cell Researchers Developing Experimental Personalized Medicine




(p. C4) Last month a team at Johns Hopkins University and the Sloan-Kettering Institute for Cancer Research, using a version of Dr. Yamanaka's technique, successfully grew nerve cells from a patient suffering from a rare disease called Riley-Day syndrome, which is linked to early mortality, seizures and other symptoms and caused by a fault in one gene.

But the purpose was not to put these cells back into the patient. Instead the scientists tested 6,912 chemical compounds on the cells to see if they could find one that "rescued" the "expression" of the gene: that is to say, caused it to produce the protein it is supposed to produce. One of the compounds worked, inducing the gene to be actively transcribed by the cell.

In the not-very-distant future, when something is going wrong in one of your organs, one treatment may be to create some stem cells from your body in the laboratory, turn them into cells of that organ, or even rudimentary structures, and then subject them to experimental treatments to see if something cures the problem. The goal of personalized medicine, in other words, may be reached by stem-cell researchers before it's reached by geneticists.



For the full commentary, see:

MATT RIDLEY. "MIND & MATTER; Stem-Cell Cures Without the Controversy." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., December 8, 2012): C4.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date December 7, 2012.)





May 9, 2013

Sometimes There Are Second Acts in American Lives




LaughtonCharlesMutinyOnTheBounty2013-05-04.jpg "In the foreground, Ian Wolfe, Charles Laughton and Clark Gable in 1935's 'Mutiny on the Bounty.'" Source of caption and photo: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.


(p. D10) In 1947 Charles Laughton's career, if not quite on the skids, was definitely in the doldrums. Long acclaimed as Hollywood's foremost character actor, he had made only one film of any artistic consequence, Jean Renoir's "This Land Is Mine," in the past seven years. The rest of the time he coasted, frequently indulging in self-parody--and nobody was easier to spoof than the man who played Captain Bligh in "Mutiny on the Bounty" and Quasimodo in "The Hunchback of Notre Dame." He wouldn't have been the first actor to sell his soul for a swimming pool (or, in his case, an art collection). But with Mr. Laughton the waste would have been unforgivable, since he was, in Laurence Olivier's words, "the only actor I ever knew who was a genius."

Instead, Mr. Laughton fooled everyone by returning to the stage for the first time since 1936. Nor did he choose a safe star vehicle for his return: He played the title role in the U.S. premiere of Bertolt Brecht's "Galileo," and he translated the play himself.


. . .


Except for "The Night of the Hunter," Mr. Laughton's post-"Galileo" career is no longer widely remembered save by scholars. But enough of it survives on sound recordings and kinescopes to prove that F. Scott Fitzgerald was all wet when he claimed that "there are no second acts in American lives." Charles Laughton, who moved from England to America to seek fame and fortune and came perilously close to losing his soul along the way, had a second act that redeemed all that came before it. No actor could ask for a better curtain.



For the full commentary, see:

TERRY TEACHOUT. "SIGHTINGS; Charles Laughton's Late Bounty." The Wall Street Journal (Fri., March 2, 2012): D10.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date March 1, 2012.)






May 8, 2013

You Can Buy a New Flint Knife or Stone Ax




(p. 55) Let's take the oldest technology of all: a flint knife or stone ax. Well, it turns out you can buy a brand-new flint knife, flaked by hand and carefully attached to an antler-horn handle by tightly wound leather straps. In every respect it is precisely the same technology as a flint knife made 30,000 years ago. It's yours for fifty dollars, available from more than one website. In the highlands of New Guinea, tribesmen were making stone axes for their own use until the 1960s. They still make stone axes the same way for tourists now. And stone-ax aficionados study them. There is an unbroken chain of knowledge that has kept this Stone Age technology alive. Today, in the United States alone, there are 5,000 amateurs who knap fresh arrowhead points by hand. They meet on weekends, exchange tips in flint-knapping clubs, and sell their points to souvenir brokers. John Whittaker, a professional archaeologist and flint knapper himself, has studied these amateurs and estimates that they produce over one million brand-new spear and arrow points per year. These new points are indistinguishable, even to experts like Whittaker, from authentic ancient ones.


Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.






May 7, 2013

Imagining Oscar Wilde's 1882 Visit to Omaha




SheLovesMeNotBK2013-05-04.jpg



















Source of image: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/1451617585.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg



(p. 10) Hansen's first collection, "Nebraska," which appeared in 1989, was a work that in its wrought realism, its ways of culling grim beauty from the often harsh history of his native place, achieved a memorable intensity. "She Loves Me Not" republishes seven of those stories, but to suggest that he's recycling would miss the larger point. Instead, he has used this early work as the basis for what becomes a very different, exploded, view of a place. In these pages, Nebraska -- Omaha in particular -- is both rendered and reappropriated, registered and riffed on through a range of tonalities.

The first story, "Wilde in Omaha," is, as its title suggests, a playful reimagining of Oscar Wilde's actual visit to that city in March of 1882. Recounted by a bumbling, fame-besotted journalist, the British writer's short stay among the arts-avid, cornfed Nebraska bourgeoisie becomes a delightful anthology of some of this famed raconteur's best bits. For Wilde will make no conversational response to any question that isn't an epigram, as often as not a well-known one. Hansen's setup lines can be almost groaningly obvious. When a Mr. Rosewater of The Daily Bee asks him, apropos of nothing, "Are you a hunter?" Wilde gets to deliver one of his celebrated bons mots: "Are you asking if I gallop after foxes in the shires? Indeed not. I consider that the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable." Didn't Monty Python run a similar shtick some years before? They did. But Hansen isn't pretending otherwise.

"Wilde in Omaha" is followed by a string of stories from the "Nebraska" collection, and what a shift it is to go from that highly arch patter to the cruel horror of the blizzard of 1888 -- a mere six years, but in terms of the circuit of human experience the very antipodes. "Wickedness" consists of a series of episodic encounters of farm people and townspeople with the completely unexpected -- and unprecedented -- storm. It's mainly a catalog of last hours and final moments, but the detailing, the staging, is unsurpassed. Every moment is fully imagined. "A tin water pail rang in a skipping roll to the horse path." A wife who has gone out to look for her husband is found "standing up in her muskrat coat and black bandanna, her scarf-wrapped hands tightly clenching the top strand of rabbit wire that was keeping her upright, her blue eyes still open but cloudily bottled by a half inch of ice, her jaw unhinged as though she'd died yelling out a name."




For the full review, see:

SVEN BIRKERTS. "Odes to Omaha." The New York Times Book Review (Sun., November 11, 2012): 10.

(Note: the online version of the review has the date November 9, 2012.)






May 6, 2013

Currently Possible Inventions Are Not Inevitable; Someone Must Think of Them and Make Them Happen




(p. C4) . . . some inventions seem to have occurred to nobody until very late. The wheeled suitcase is arguably such a, well, case. Bernard Sadow applied for a patent on wheeled baggage in 1970, after a Eureka moment when he was lugging his heavy bags through an airport while a local worker effortlessly pushed a large cart past. You might conclude that Mr. Sadow was decades late. There was little to stop his father or grandfather from putting wheels on bags.

Mr. Sadow's bags ran on four wheels, dragged on a lead like a dog. Seventeen years later a Northwest Airlines pilot, Robert Plath, invented the idea of two wheels on a suitcase held vertically, plus a telescopic handle to pull it with. This "Rollaboard," now ubiquitous, also feels as if it could have been invented much earlier.

Or take the can opener, invented in the 1850s, eight decades after the can. Early 19th-century soldiers and explorers had to make do with stabbing bayonets into food cans. "Why doesn't somebody come up with a wheeled cutter?" they must have muttered (or not) as they wrenched open the cans.



For the full commentary, see:

MATT RIDLEY. "MIND & MATTER; Don't Look for Inventions Before Their Time." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., September 15, 2012): C4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date September 14, 2012.)





May 5, 2013

In Latvia Deep Budget Cuts Lead to High Economic Growth




LatviaNewDairyFactoryOutsideRiga2013-05-04.jpg "A worker cleaned equipment at a new dairy factory outside Riga. The I.M.F. has hailed Latvia for its deep budget cuts." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.


It is interesting that the New York Times photographer (see above) chose to display the Latvian economic success story in bleak shades of grey and darkness.


(p. A1) RIGA, Latvia -- When a credit-fueled economic boom turned to bust in this tiny Baltic nation in 2008, Didzis Krumins, who ran a small architectural company, fired his staff one by one and then shut down the business. He watched in dismay as Latvia's misery deepened under a harsh austerity drive that scythed wages, jobs and state financing for schools and hospitals.

But instead of taking to the streets to protest the cuts, Mr. Krumins, whose newborn child, in the meantime, needed major surgery, bought a tractor and began hauling wood to heating plants that needed fuel. Then, as Latvia's economy began to pull out of its nose-dive, he returned to architecture and today employs 15 people -- five more than he had before. "We have a different mentality here," he said.


. . .


Hardship has long been common here -- and still is. But in just four years, the country has gone from the European Union's worst economic disaster zone to a model of what the International Monetary Fund hails as the healing properties of deep budget cuts. Latvia's economy, after shriveling by more than 20 percent from its peak, grew by about 5 percent last year, making it the best performer in the 27-nation European Union. Its budget deficit is down sharply and exports are soaring.



For the full story, see:

ANDREW HIGGINS. "Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases." The New York Times (Weds., January 2, 2013): A1 & A6.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date January 1, 2013.)






May 4, 2013

Steam-Powered Cars Show that Old Technologies Rarely Totally Disappear




(p. 53) In my own travels around the world I was struck by how resilient ancient technologies were, how they were often first choices where power and modern resources were scarce. It seemed to me as if no technologies ever disappeared. I was challenged on this conclusion by a highly regarded historian of technology who told me without thinking, "Look, they don't make steam-powered automobiles anymore." Well, within a few clicks on Google I very quickly located folks who are making brand-new parts for Stanley steam-powered cars. Nice shiny copper valves, pistons, whatever you need. With enough money you could put together an entirely new steam-powered car. And of course, thousand of hobbyists are still bolting together steam-powered vehicles, and hundreds more are keeping old ones running. Steam power is very much an intact, though uncommon, species of technology.


Source:

Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking Adult, 2010.

(Note: italics in original.)






May 3, 2013

Organic Animals Cause More Global Warming than Non-Organic Animals




JustFoodBK2013-05-01.jpg















Source of book image: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-EH374_justfo_DV_20090821150506.jpg



(p. A23) Grass-grazing cows emit considerably more methane than grain-fed cows. Pastured organic chickens have a 20 percent greater impact on global warming. It requires 2 to 20 acres to raise a cow on grass. If we raised all the cows in the United States on grass (all 100 million of them), cattle would require (using the figure of 10 acres per cow) almost half the country's land (and this figure excludes space needed for pastured chicken and pigs). A tract of land just larger than France has been carved out of the Brazilian rain forest and turned over to grazing cattle. Nothing about this is sustainable.

Advocates of small-scale, nonindustrial alternatives say their choice is at least more natural. Again, this is a dubious claim. Many farmers who raise chickens on pasture use industrial breeds that have been bred to do one thing well: fatten quickly in confinement. As a result, they can suffer painful leg injuries after several weeks of living a "natural" life pecking around a large pasture. Free-range pigs are routinely affixed with nose rings to prevent them from rooting, which is one of their most basic instincts. In essence, what we see as natural doesn't necessarily conform to what is natural from the animals' perspectives.



For the full commentary, see:

JAMES E. McWILLIAMS. "The Myth of Sustainable Meat." The New York Times (Fri., April 13, 2012): A23.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date April 12, 2012.)


McWilliams' book on related issues, is:

McWilliams, James E. Just Food: Where Locavores Get It Wrong and How We Can Truly Eat Responsibly. New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2009.






May 2, 2013

Cultural Impact of Industrial Design Is Greater than Cultural Impact of Fine Arts




(p. C3) Capitalism has its weaknesses. But it is capitalism that ended the stranglehold of the hereditary aristocracies, raised the standard of living for most of the world and enabled the emancipation of women. The routine defamation of capitalism by armchair leftists in academe and the mainstream media has cut young artists and thinkers off from the authentic cultural energies of our time.

Over the past century, industrial design has steadily gained on the fine arts and has now surpassed them in cultural impact. In the age of travel and speed that began just before World War I, machines became smaller and sleeker. Streamlining, developed for race cars, trains, airplanes and ocean liners, was extended in the 1920s to appliances like vacuum cleaners and washing machines. The smooth white towers of electric refrigerators (replacing clunky iceboxes) embodied the elegant new minimalism.

"Form ever follows function," said Louis Sullivan, the visionary Chicago architect who was a forefather of the Bauhaus. That maxim was a rubric for the boom in stylish interior décor, office machines and electronics following World War II: Olivetti typewriters, hi-fi amplifiers, portable transistor radios, space-age TVs, baby-blue Princess telephones. With the digital revolution came miniaturization. The Apple desktop computer bore no resemblance to the gigantic mainframes that once took up whole rooms. Hand-held cellphones became pocket-size.



For the full commentary, see:

Paglia, Camille. "How Capitalism Can Save Art; Camille Paglia on why a new generation has chosen iPhones and other glittering gadgets as its canvas." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., October 6, 2012): C3.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date October 5, 2012.)






May 1, 2013

Global Warming Would Likely Prevent Coming Ice Age in North America




BencivengoBrianNationalIceCoreLab2013-05-01.jpg "Scientists like Brian Bencivengo of the National Ice Core Laboratory examine ice cores to determine past air temperatures at the location from which the core was obtained." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.



(p. A15) In the . . . journal Science, Shaun Marcott, an earth scientist at Oregon State University, and his colleagues compiled the most meticulous reconstruction yet of global temperatures over the past 11,300 years, virtually the entire Holocene. They used indicators like the distribution of microscopic, temperature-sensitive ocean creatures to determine past climate.


. . .


Scientists say that if natural factors were still governing the climate, the Northern Hemisphere would probably be destined to freeze over again in several thousand years. "We were on this downward slope, presumably going back toward another ice age," Dr. Marcott said.

Instead, scientists believe the enormous increase in greenhouse gases caused by industrialization will almost certainly prevent that.

During the long climatic plateau of the early Holocene, global temperatures were roughly the same as those of today, at least within the uncertainty of the estimates, the new paper shows. This is consistent with a large body of past research focused on the Northern Hemisphere, which showed a distribution of ice and vegetation suggestive of a relatively warm climate.



For the full story, see:

JUSTIN GILLIS. "Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years." The New York Times (Fri., March 8, 2013): A15.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date March 7, 2013.)


The Marcott article mentioned, is:

Marcott, Shaun A., Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, and Alan C. Mix. "Report: A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years." Science 339, no. 6124 (March 8, 2013): 1198-201.






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