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October 31, 2015

Obama's Law Professor Accuses Feds of "Burning the Constitution" on the Environment




(p. A19) LAURENCE H. TRIBE, the liberal icon and legal scholar, has grabbed headlines in recent weeks for publicly attacking President Obama's signature climate change initiative -- the Clean Power Plan -- which would regulate carbon emissions from power plants. He was retained as an independent expert by Peabody Energy, the world's largest private-sector coal company, and is representing it in a lawsuit that seeks to invalidate the plan.

Professor Tribe represented Al Gore in Bush v. Gore and taught the president constitutional law at Harvard (and later served in his administration). Now he is arguing passionately that Mr. Obama's plan is unconstitutional, using language more at home on Twitter and the Fox News ticker than in a courtroom.

In a House of Representatives hearing last week, he compared the plan, which would most likely lead to the closing of many old coal-fired power plants, to "burning the Constitution."



For the full commentary, see:

RICHARD L. REVESZ. "An Obama Friend Turns Foe on Coal." The New York Times (Thurs., MARCH 26, 2015): A19.






October 30, 2015

Exponential Entrepreneurs Get Rich by Innovating (and Fleecing?)





The reviewer's concern about technology platforms fleecing the masses is shared by Jaron Lanier who describes, and tries to solve it, in a thought-provoking book called Who Owns the Future? (Hint: his solution involves an extension of property rights.)



(p. A9) The exponential entrepreneurs are "paving the way for a new world of abundance" by finding big problems and exploiting the "Six D's": digitalization, deception, disruption, demonetization, dematerialization, democratization.

Take the case of Kodak and photography. First came the technology that allowed photographs to be taken and stored digitally rather than on film--digitization. But it seemed too trivial for a giant like Kodak to worry about--an act of self-deception. Then came disruption, when digital photography grew from a tiny niche into a big business and then surpassed print photography. People no longer needed to pay to store or share their photographs because free digital services had sprung up. Kodak found itself demonetized. Then photography was dematerialized, as cameras were built into phones and the physical materials of the darkroom were replaced by digital tools. Finally, the entire process was democratized, since anyone with a phone can (at no additional cost) take pictures, edit them and share them.

In 1996 Kodak employed 140,000 people and had a market value of $28 billion. In January 2012 it filed for bankruptcy. Instagram was founded in October 2010 and was bought by Facebook in April 2012 for $1 billion. It had 13 employees at the time. Instagram was the definition of an exponential organization, one "whose impact (or output)--because of its use of networks or automation and/or its leveraging of the crowd--is disproportionally large compared to its number of employees." The Six D's, the authors make clear, are leaving the poor executives who think in linear rather than exponential fashion in a state of three D's: "distraught, depressed and departed."


. . .


The great lie about so much technology is that it has enabled a more sharing, more democratic age. But too much of the "sharing" that happens online seems to involve people abandoning their livelihoods to the owners of "platforms"--letting the masses be demonetized and dematerialized for the enrichment of a few. Too much of the "democracy" feels like voyeurism or surveillance. The crowd is not just sourcing and funding this new economy; it's also getting fleeced.



For the full review, see:

PHILIP DELVES BROUGHTON. "BOOKSHELF; Go Big Or Go Home." The Wall Street Journal (Tues., Feb. 17, 2015): A9.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date Feb. 16, 2015.)


The book discussed in the review is:

Diamandis, Peter H., and Steven Kotler. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015.


The book mentioned by Lanier is:

Lanier, Jaron. Who Owns the Future? pb ed. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013.






October 29, 2015

World Inequality Declines




(p. 6) Income inequality has surged as a political and economic issue, but the numbers don't show that inequality is rising from a global perspective. Yes, the problem has become more acute within most individual nations, yet income inequality for the world as a whole has been falling for most of the last 20 years. It's a fact that hasn't been noted often enough.

The finding comes from a recent investigation by Christoph Lakner, a consultant at the World Bank, and Branko Milanovic, senior scholar at the Luxembourg Income Study Center. And while such a framing may sound startling at first, it should be intuitive upon reflection. The economic surges of China, India and some other nations have been among the most egalitarian developments in history.



For the full commentary, see:

TYLER COWEN. "The Upshot; Economic View; All in All, a More Egalitarian World." The New York Times, SundayBusiness Section (Sun., JULY 20, 2014): 6.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date JULY 19, 2014, has the title "The Upshot; Economic View; Income Inequality Is Not Rising Globally. It's Falling.")






October 28, 2015

Lax College Accreditors May Be "Doing More Harm than Good"




(p. A19) Most colleges can't keep their doors open without an accreditor's seal of approval, which is needed to get students access to federal loans and grants. But accreditors hardly ever kick out the worst-performing colleges and lack uniform standards for assessing graduation rates and loan defaults.

Those problems are blamed by critics for deepening the student-debt crisis as college costs soared during the past decade. Last year alone, the U.S. government sent $16 billion in aid to students at four-year colleges that graduated less than one-third of their students within six years, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of the latest available federal data.


. . .


(p. A12) Accreditors say their job is to help colleges get better rather than to weed out laggards. Colleges pay for the inspections, which can cost more than $1 million at large institutions.

"You're not there to remove an institution," says Judith Eaton, president of the Council for Higher Education Accreditation, a trade group. "You're there to enhance the operation."

The government has relied on accreditors as watchdogs since the 1950s. Colleges are evaluated by teams of volunteers from similar institutions, who follow standards set by the accreditation group. For example, colleges sometimes are required to collect student-retention data but given the freedom to set their own goals for those numbers.


. . .


Stephen Roderick, former provost at Fort Lewis College in Colorado, says he now has misgivings about his 2013 review of Glenville State College in West Virginia for the Higher Learning Commission. The review team wrote that the college had a "responsible program" to minimize default rates and "demonstrates a commitment" to evaluating graduation data.

Glenville's graduation rate is 30%, while about 22% of students defaulted on loans from 2011 to 2013. Both percentages rank near the bottom 10% of accredited four-year colleges. David Millard, assistant to Glenville's president, says the figures reflect the opportunity offered by the college to students in one of the poorest parts of the U.S.

Mr. Roderick says accreditors are inclined to see the best in colleges like Glenville, but that might not be the best for students. "Sometimes I feel that we're doing more harm than good," he says.



For the full story, see:

ANDREA FULLER and DOUGLAS BELKIN. "Education Watchdogs Rarely Bite; Accreditors keep hundreds of schools with low graduation rates or high loan defaults alive." The Wall Street Journal (Thurs., June 18, 2015): A1 & A12.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the article was dated June 17, 2015, and had the title "The Watchdogs of College Education Rarely Bite; Accreditors keep hundreds of schools with low graduation rates or high loan defaults alive.")






October 27, 2015

Those Who Use "Consensus" Argument on Global Warming, Should Endorse Genetically Modified Food




(p. B3) NAIROBI, Kenya -- Mohammed Rahman doesn't know it yet, but his small farm in central Bangladesh is globally significant. Mr. Rahman, a smallholder farmer in Krishnapur, about 60 miles northwest of the capital, Dhaka, grows eggplant on his meager acre of waterlogged land.

As we squatted in the muddy field, examining the lush green foliage and shiny purple fruits, he explained how, for the first time this season, he had been able to stop using pesticides. This was thanks to a new pest-resistant variety of eggplant supplied by the government-run Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute.

Despite a recent hailstorm, the weather had been kind, and the new crop flourished. Productivity nearly doubled. Mr. Rahman had already harvested the small plot 10 times, he said, and sold the brinjal (eggplant's name in the region) labeled "insecticide free" at a small premium in the local market. Now, with increased profits, he looked forward to being able to lift his family further out of poverty. I could see why this was so urgent: Half a dozen shirtless kids gathered around, clamoring for attention. They all looked stunted by malnutrition.


. . .


I, . . . , was once in [the] . . . activist camp. A lifelong environmentalist, I opposed genetically modified foods in the past. Fifteen years ago, I even participated in vandalizing field trials in Britain. Then I changed my mind.

After writing two books on the science of climate change, I decided I could no longer continue taking a pro-science position on global warming and an anti-science position on G.M.O.s.

There is an equivalent level of scientific consensus on both issues, I realized, that climate change is real and genetically modified foods are safe. I could not defend the expert consensus on one issue while opposing it on the other.



For the full commentary, see:

MARK LYNAS. "How I Got Converted to G.M.O. Food." The New York Times, SundayReview Section (Sun., APRIL 26, 2015): 5.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed word, added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date APRIL 24, 2015.)






October 26, 2015

"Plunged Back into a Pre-Industrial Hell"




(p. B1) If you drive a car, or use modern medicine, or believe in man's right to economic progress, then according to Alex Epstein you should be grateful--more than grateful. In "The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels" the author, an energy advocate and founder of a for-profit think tank called the Center for Industrial Progress, suggests that if all you had to rely on were the good intentions of environmentalists, you would be soon plunged back into a pre-industrial hell. Life expectancy would plummet, climate-related deaths would soar, and the only way that Timberland and Whole Foods could ship their environmentally friendly clothing and food would be by mule. "Being forced to rely on solar, wind, and biofuels would be a horror beyond anything we can imagine," writes Mr. Epstein, "as a civilization that runs on cheap, plentiful, reliable energy would see its machines dead, its productivity destroyed, its resources disappearing."


For the full review, see:

PHILIP DELVES BROUGHTON. "BOOKSHELF; Go Ahead, Fill 'Er Up; Renouncing oil and its byproducts would plunge civilization into a pre-industrial hell--a fact developing countries keenly realize." The Wall Street Journal (Tues., Dec. 2, 2014): A15.

(Note: the online version of the review has the date Dec. 1, 2014, and has the title "BOOKSHELF; Making 'The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels'; Renouncing oil and its byproducts would plunge civilization into a pre-industrial hell--a fact developing countries keenly realize.")


The book praised in the review is:

Epstein, Alex. The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. New York: Portfolio, 2014.






October 25, 2015

Bernanke Not Clear if His Zero Interest Rate Policy Increased Inequality




(p. B3) . . . it is striking to find Mr. Bernanke . . . receptive to a . . . critique: that the bond-purchasing efforts, known as quantitative easing, increased economic inequality.

"Monetary policy is a blunt tool which certainly affects the distribution of income and wealth, although whether the net effect is to increase or reduce inequality is not clear," Mr. Bernanke wrote in a blog post on Monday.

This was not a white flag. Mr. Bernanke went on to argue that the stimulus campaign was justified irrespective of the impact on inequality. But it struck a surprisingly hesitant note on a day when the Brookings Institution, Mr. Bernanke's new home, hosted a conference on the same subject that was largely devoted to evidence that the Fed's efforts had reduced economic inequality.


. . .


Current Fed officials share Mr. Bernanke's judgment about the basic economic impact of the program. "Did these policies work?" Stanley Fischer, the Fed's vice chairman, asked rhetorically during a speech on Monday in Toronto. "The econometric evidence says yes. So does the evidence of one's eyes."

But the "eye test" has also suggested to many that the wealthy have benefited disproportionately. The stock market has soared, and investors have prospered, even as wage growth has stagnated. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, has memorably described the Fed's current role as a "reverse Robin Hood," rewarding the rich at the expense of the poor.



For the full commentary, see:

Binyamin Appelbaum. "The Upshot; Ben Bernanke Says Fed Can't Get Caught Up in Inequality Debate." The New York Times (Tues., JUNE 2, 2015): B3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the article has the date JUNE 1, 2015 and has the title "The Upshot; Ben Bernanke Says Fed Can't Get Caught Up in Inequality Debate.")






October 24, 2015

China Looks to Innovation to Increase Growth




(p. 6) Wrapping up the 11-day session at a news conference on Sunday [March 15, 2015], Premier Li Keqiang said that while the economy faced downward pressure, the government has room to step in and has "more tools in our toolbox" should growth flag and affect employment.


. . .


As exports, investment and infrastructure become more ineffective in generating economic growth, China's leadership is looking to innovation and entrepreneurship to pick up the slack.

Toward that end, Mr. Li said Beijing will continue to reduce regulatory interference. The number of government approvals required to begin a new venture has roughly halved to 50 to 60 steps in recent years, he said, although this level still raises costs and damps enthusiasm for startups.

But the Chinese state retains an oversized role in the economy and many of the outlined moves to limit its role are difficult to verify.



For the full story, see:

MARK MAGNIER. "Beijing Plans More Action to Spur Growth." The Wall Street Journal (Mon., March 16, 2015): A9.

(Note: ellipsis, and bracketed date, added. Where there was a small difference in paragraph structure, the quoted passages follow the print version.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 15, 2015, has the title "China Plans More Action to Spur Growth.")






October 23, 2015

"Strong-Willed Scientists Overstated the Significance of Their Studies"





The New York Times seems open to the idea that strong-willed scientists might overstate their results in science food studies. I wonder if The New York Times would be open to the same possibility in science climate studies?



(p. A19) For two generations, Americans ate fewer eggs and other animal products because policy makers told them that fat and cholesterol were bad for their health. Now both dogmas have been debunked in quick succession.


. . .


Epidemiological data can be used to suggest hypotheses but not to prove them.

Instead of accepting that this evidence was inadequate to give sound advice, strong-willed scientists overstated the significance of their studies.

Much of the epidemiological data underpinning the government's dietary advice comes from studies run by Harvard's school of public health. In 2011, directors of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences analyzed many of Harvard's most important findings and found that they could not be reproduced in clinical trials.

It's no surprise that longstanding nutritional guidelines are now being challenged.

In 2013, government advice to reduce salt intake (which remains in the current report) was contradicted by an authoritative Institute of Medicine study. And several recent meta-analyses have cast serious doubt on whether saturated fats are linked to heart disease, as the dietary guidelines continue to assert.

Uncertain science should no longer guide our nutrition policy. Indeed, cutting fat and cholesterol, as Americans have conscientiously done, may have even worsened our health.



For the full commentary, see:

NINA TEICHOLZ. "The Government's Bad Diet Advice." The New York Times (Sat., FEB. 21, 2015): A19.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date FEB. 20, 2015.)






October 22, 2015

"Bring Prosperity to Billions of People"




(p. B1) If you're feeling down about the world, the book, "Resource Revolution: How to Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century," is an antidote. Mr. Rogers and Mr. Heck outline how emerging advances -- among them 3-D printing, autonomous vehicles, modular construction systems and home automation -- might in time alter some of the world's largest industries and (p. B7) bring prosperity to billions of people.

They put forward a rigorous argument bolstered by mountains of data and recent case studies. And once you start looking at Silicon Valley their way, your mind reels at the far-reaching potential of the innovations now spreading through society.



For the full commentary, see:

Farhad Manjoo. "STATE OF THE ART; The Future Could Work, if We Let It." The New York Times (Thurs., AUG. 28, 2014): B1 & B7.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date AUG. 27, 2014.)


The book praised in the commentary is:

Heck, Stefan, and Matt Rogers. Resource Revolution: How to Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century. New York: Melcher Media, 2014.






October 21, 2015

War Improves Air Quality by Reducing Fossil Fuel Consumption




(p. A4) A paper published on Friday [September 25, 2015] in the journal Science Advances analyzed satellite data from observations of major cities in the Middle East and found that measurements of nitrogen oxides in the air around those cities provided insights into the effects of war, civil unrest and other crises.

Nitrogen dioxide, a byproduct of the burning of fossil fuels, is part of the chemical reactions that produce ozone and smog. Nitrogen oxides are often used by scientists as an indicator of economic activity and of the effectiveness of pollution-control measures.

From 2005 to 2010, the Middle East had some of the world's fastest-growing levels of polluting emissions, in step with economic development. According to the paper, however, in recent years many of the cities in the region showed a rapid decline in levels of nitrogen oxides, while levels continued to rise elsewhere in the world.



For the full story, see:

JOHN SCHWARTZ. "Study Finds Surprising Byproduct of Middle Eastern Conflicts: Cleaner Air." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., AUG. 22, 2015): A4.

(Note: bracketed date added; the print version had the journal simply as Science.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date AUG. 21, 2015.)






October 20, 2015

Workers May Prefer to Have More Workcations than Fewer Vacations




(p. B6) . . . for various reasons, people might choose or need to work from remote destinations, and logging in from the beach may be more relaxing than clocking into the office.

Adds Kenneth Matos, senior director of research at the Families and Work Institute: "Is the workcation detracting from the vacation you were going to have, or is it enabling the vacation you otherwise wouldn't have had?"


. . .


For Bill Raymond, Disney World proved an ideal workcation destination. In February, Mr. Raymond and his wife flew from their suburban Boston home to Orlando, where they spent a couple of days touring the theme park.

For the next two days, Mr. Raymond, a solutions architect at enterprise search firm Voyager Search, clocked full workdays from the Orlando resort, hunkering down with his laptop and taking sales calls by the pool.

Mr. Raymond even wrote a post on his personal blog with tips on how to be a productive "workcationer" at Disney, pinpointing locations at the resort that offer fewer distractions. (Among his top picks were the pool at the Disney Port Orleans French Quarter resort, which he says wasn't "overrun with kids being kids.")

Brian Goldin, Voyager's chief executive and Mr. Raymond's boss, was "totally fine" with the arrangement. "The idea of the traditional office environment doesn't really exist that much," Mr. Goldin says.


. . .


The working vacation kept Ms. Granzella Larssen, 32 years old, current with her email; she also felt more productive in a tropical setting because she wasn't being pulled into impromptu meetings. And despite being by the beach, "I felt completely plugged in."



For the full commentary, see:

RACHEL EMMA SILVERMAN. "This Summer, How About a Workcation?" The Wall Street Journal (Weds., June 24, 2015): B1 & B6.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date June 23, 2015, has the title "This Summer, How About a Workcation?")






October 19, 2015

FCC Gains Arbitrary Power Over Internet Innovation




(p. A11) Imagine if Steve Jobs, Larry Page or Mark Zuckerberg had been obliged to ask bureaucrats in Washington if it was OK to launch the iPhone, Gmail, or Facebook's forthcoming Oculus virtual-reality service. Ridiculous, right? Not anymore.

A few days before the Independence Day holiday weekend, the Federal Communications Commission announced what amounts to a system of permission slips for the Internet.


. . .


As the FCC begins to issue guidance and enforcement actions, it's becoming clearer that critics who feared there would be significant legal uncertainty were right. Under its new "transparency" rule, for example, the agency on June 17 conjured out of thin air an astonishing $100 million fine against AT&T, even though the firm explained its mobile-data plans on its websites and in numerous emails and texts to customers.

The FCC's new "Internet Conduct Standard," meanwhile, is no standard at all. It is an undefined catchall for any future behavior the agency doesn't like.


. . .


From the beginning, Internet pioneers operated in an environment of "permissionless innovation." FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler now insists that "it makes sense to have somebody watching over their shoulder and ready to jump in if necessary." But the agency is jumping in to demand that innovators get permission before they offer new services to consumers. The result will be less innovation.



For the full commentary, see:

BRET SWANSON. "Permission Slips for Internet Innovation; The FCC's new Web rules are already as onerous as feared and favor some business models over others." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., Aug. 15, 2015): A11.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Aug. 14, 2015.)






October 18, 2015

Stress Can Help Us Do Well




(p. C3) "We're bombarded with information about how bad stress is," says Jeremy Jamieson, a professor of psychology at the University of Rochester who specializes in stress. But the conventional view, he says, fails to appreciate the many ways in which physical and psychological tension can help us to perform better.

In research published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology in 2010, Prof. Jamieson tested his theory with college students who were preparing to take the Graduate Record Examination, which is used for admission to Ph.D. programs. He invited 60 students to take a practice GRE and collected saliva samples from them beforehand to get baseline measures of their levels of alpha-amylase, a hormonal indicator of stress. He told them that the goal of the study was to examine how the physiological stress response affects performance.

He then gave half the students a brief pep talk to help them rethink their pre-exam nervousness. "People think that feeling anxious while taking a standardized test will make them do poorly," he told them. "However, recent research suggests that stress doesn't hurt performance on these tests and can even help performance. People who feel anxious during a test might actually do better.... If you find yourself feeling anxious, simply remind yourself that your stress could be helping you do well."

It worked: Students who received the mind-set intervention scored higher on the practice exam than those in the control group. Nor could the difference in GRE scores be attributed to differences in ability: Students had been randomly assigned to the two groups and didn't differ, on average, in their SAT scores or college GPAs.



For the full commentary, see:

KELLY MCGONIGAL. "Stressed Out? Embrace It; To perform under pressure, research finds that welcoming anxiety is more helpful than calming down." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., May 16, 2015): C3.

(Note: ellipsis in original.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date May 15, 2015, and has the title "Use Stress to Your Advantage; To perform under pressure, research finds that welcoming anxiety is more helpful than calming down.")


McGonigal's book, related to her commentary quoted above, is:

McGonigal, Kelly. The Upside of Stress: Why Stress Is Good for You, and How to Get Good at It. New York: Avery, 2015.


The research article mentioned in the passages quoted above, is:

Jamieson, Jeremy P., Wendy Berry Mendes, Erin Blackstock, and Toni Schmader. "Turning the Knots in Your Stomach into Bows: Reappraising Arousal Improves Performance on the GRE." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 46, no. 1 (Jan. 2010): 208-12.






October 17, 2015

Affluent Are More Likely to Work During Retirement





That the affluent are more than twice as likely to work past retirement, may be a sign that the better paying jobs are also the more satisfying jobs.



(p. B9) But retirement isn't for everyone. Affluent individuals are more than twice as likely as other people to keep working in retirement, according to a July survey by Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and Age Wave, a research firm based in Emeryville, Calif., that specializes in aging populations.

Some 33% of retirees with $1 million to $5 million in assets are working, as are 29% of those with more than $5 million. Most say they do so because they want to, not because they have to, according to the survey.

Half of affluent working retirees have shifted to a different line of work, most often because of greater flexibility of scheduling, the opportunity to experience new things, and the pursuit of a passion or interest, the survey found.

The results show how important it is to consider what you will do with your time and to think hard about whether that will be satisfying.



For the full commentary, see:

LIZ MOYER. "Can You Afford to Retire Early?" The Wall Street Journal (Sat., Aug. 2, 2014): B7 & B9.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Aug. 1, 2014.)






October 16, 2015

"We Embrace New Technology"




(p. 2D) . . . , the first digital images created by the earliest digital cameras "were terrible," Rockbrook's Chuck Fortina said. "These were real chunky images made by big, clunky cameras."

Viewing those results, some retailers dismissed the new digital technology and clung doggedly to film. But Rockbrook Camera began stocking digital cameras alongside models that used film, Fortina said.

"Film sales were great, but we just knew digital was going to take over," Fortina said. As those cameras and their images improved, the retailer saw a huge opportunity. ''Instead of thinking this is going to kill our business, we were thinking people are going to have to buy all new gear," Fortina said of the switch from analog to digital.

"By 2000, film was over," he said. Companies that didn't refocus their business found themselves struggling or forced to close their doors.

Today, Rockbrook Camera is constantly scouring the Internet, attending trade shows and quizzing customers and employees in search of new technologies, Fortina said. "We embrace new technology," he said.



For the full story, see:

Janice Podsada. "More Ready than Not for Tech Shifts; How 3 Omaha-area businesses altered course and thrived amid technological changes." Omaha World-Herald (SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2015 ): 1D-2D.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the title "How 3 Omaha-area businesses altered course and thrived amid technological changes.")






October 15, 2015

Entrepreneurs Creating Healthy, Tasty Meat, Without Killing Animals




(p. B2) "The next couple of years will be exciting ones," says Joseph D. Puglisi, a Stanford University professor of structural biology who is working on meat alternatives. "We can use a broad range of plant protein sources and create a palette of textures and tastes -- for example, jerky, cured meats, sausage, pork."

"The true challenge will be to recreate more complex pieces of meat that are the pinnacle of the meat industry," he added. "I believe that plausible, good-tasting steaks and pork loins are only a matter of time."

Puglisi is advising Beyond Meat, a start-up that is a leader in the field, with investments from Bill Gates and both Biz Stone and Ev Williams of Twitter fame, not to mention Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the venture capital firm that backed Google and Amazon. Beyond Meat says its sales are doubling each year.

"We're really focused on the mainstream," said Ethan Brown, the founder of Beyond Meat, over a lunch of fake chili, meatballs and hamburgers.


. . .


"We want to create the next great American meat company," Brown says. "That's the dream."


. . .


The mainstream food industry isn't saying much publicly. But recently released documents from the American Egg Board, a quasi-governmental body, show it regarded Hampton Creek's egg-free "Just Mayo" spread as a "major threat." In one internal email, an Egg Board executive jokingly suggests hiring a hit man to deal with Hampton Creek.


. . .


. . . if I can still enjoy a juicy burger now and then, while boosting my health, helping the environment and avoiding the brutalizing of farm animals, hey, I'm in!



For the full commentary, see:

Nicholas Kristof. "The (Fake) Meat Revolution." The New York Times, SundayReview Section (Sun., SEPT. 20, 2015): 11.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date SEPT. 19, 2015.)






October 14, 2015

John Paul Stapp Thumbed His Nose at the Precautionary Principle




(p. C7) In the early 19th century, a science professor in London named Dionysus Lardner rejected the future of high-speed train travel because, he said, "passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." A contemporary, the famed engineer Thomas Tredgold, agreed, noting "that any general system of conveying passengers . . . [traveling] at a velocity exceeding 10 miles an hour, or thereabouts, is extremely improbable."

The current land speed for a human being is 763 miles an hour, or thereabouts, thanks in large part to the brilliance, bravery and dedication of a U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel named John Paul Stapp, a wonderfully iconoclastic medical doctor, innovator and renegade consumer activist who repeatedly put his own life in peril in search of the line beyond which human survival at speed really was "extremely improbable."


. . .


Initial tests were carried out on a crash-test dummy named Oscar Eightball, then chimpanzees and pigs. There was plenty of trial and error--the term "Murphy's Law" was coined during the Gee Whiz experiments--until Stapp couldn't resist strapping himself into the Gee Whiz to experience firsthand what the cold data could never reveal: what it felt like. On May 5, 1948, for example, he "took a peak deceleration of an astounding twenty-four times the force of gravity," the author writes. "This was the equivalent of a full stop from 75 miles per hour in just seven feet or, in other words, freeway speed to zero in the length of a very tall man."

Stapp endured a total of 26 rides on the Gee Whiz over the course of 50 months, measuring an array of physiological factors as well as testing prototype helmets and safety belts. Along the way he suffered a broken wrist, torn rib cartilage, a bruised collarbone, a fractured coccyx, busted capillaries in both eyes and six cracked dental fillings. Colleagues became increasingly concerned for his health every time he staggered, gamely, off the sled, but, according to Mr. Ryan, he never lost his sense of humor, nor did these ordeals stop Dr. Stapp from voluntarily making house calls at night for families stationed on the desolate air base.


. . .


After 29 harrowing trips down the track, Stapp prepared for one grand finale, what he called the "Big Run," hoping to achieve 600 miles per hour, the speed beyond which many scientists suspected that human survivability was--really, this time--highly improbable. On Dec. 10, 1954, Sonic Wind marked a speed of 639 miles per hour, faster than a .45 caliber bullet shot from a pistol. Film footage of the test shows the sled rocketing past an overhead jet plane that was filming the event. The Big Run temporarily blinded Stapp, and he turned blue for a few days, but the experiment landed him on the cover of Time magazine as the fastest man on earth. The record stood for the next 30 years.



For the full review, see:

PATRICK COOKE. "Faster Than a Speeding Bullet--Really." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., Aug. 22, 2015): C7.

(Note: first ellipsis, and bracketed word, in original; other ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date Aug. 21, 2015.)


The book under review, is:

Ryan, Craig. Sonic Wind: The Story of John Paul Stapp and How a Renegade Doctor Became the Fastest Man on Earth. New York: Liveright Publishing Corp., 2015.






October 13, 2015

Should You Care How Other People Perceive You?




(p. B2) Sadly, it does appear that being flawed in one area may help in others. In an article in The Atlantic titled "Why It Pays to Be a Jerk," the author Jerry Useem quotes several studies that show that nice guys don't usually win. Donald Hambrick, a management professor at Penn State, told the magazine, "To the extent that innovation and risk-taking are in short supply in the corporate world, narcissists are the ones who are going to step up to the plate."

Not everyone thinks Jobs was a jerk. Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president for Internet software and services, wrote on Twitter that he felt the Gibney film was "an inaccurate and meanspirited view of my friend. It's not a reflection of the Steve I knew."

But the black hat-white hat version of Jobs may be too confining.

In a fascinating interview last year with Graydon Carter of Vanity Fair, Jonathan Ive, Apple's famed designer and longtime friend of Jobs, recounted a telling story. He remembered a time when Jobs had been tough -- too tough, in Mr. Ive's estimation -- on his team. Mr. Ive pulled him aside and told him to be bit nicer. "Well, why?" Jobs replied. "Because I care about the team," Mr. Ive responded. "And he said this brutally, brilliantly insightful thing, which was, 'No, Jony, you're just really vain,' " Mr. Ive recalled. "He said, 'You just want people to like you, and I'm surprised at you because I thought you really held the work up as the most important, not how you believed you were perceived by other people.' "

That story and the documentary left me with me with two questions: Would you rather do something extraordinary that benefits the lives of millions of people? Or be liked by several hundred? And does it have to be an either-or question?

The answer, like Jobs, is complicated.



For the full commentary, see:

Andrew Ross Sorkin. "Decoding Steve Jobs, in Life and on Film." The New York Times (Tues., SEPT. 8, 2015): B1-B2.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date SEPT. 7, 2015.)






October 12, 2015

French Billionaire Entrepreneur Starts Small and Cuts Costs





On Mon., October 13, 2014, Iliad dropped its bid for T-Mobile, after lack of interest from some of the T-Mobile board and from the majority owner, Deutsche Telekom AG.



(p. B1) Iliad wants to improve T-Mobile US's cost structure by applying its own ultraslim cost base, under which it has kept costs to a minimum in everything from IT services to back office to equipment purchases. Iliad estimates it will be able to save about $2 billion annually by cutting out costs such as sending paper bills, and savings on equipment and IT systems, Mr. Niel said.


. . .


(p. B4) . . . before Mr. Niel can execute his American dream, Iliad has to win over T-Mobile US's board, which could prove a formidable challenge.


. . .


He says he is sticking to the same principle that has guided his ascent from a teenage computer programmer in a working class Paris suburb to one of France's richest men.

"I always follow the same idea: Start small and disrupt to create something big," he said.



For the full story, see:

RUTH BENDER. "Will This Billionaire Bring $3-a-Month Phone Plans to U.S.?" The Wall Street Journal (Sat., Aug. 2, 2014): B1 & B4.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story says it was updated on Aug. 4, 2014.)






October 11, 2015

Feds Constrain Startups




(p. A15) Virtually every state has suffered a drop in startups, which suggests that this is a national, and not a regional or state, problem.


. . .


If history is any indication, many of today's economic heavyweights will ultimately decline as new businesses take their place. Research by the Kaufman Foundation shows that only about half of the 1995 Fortune 500 firms remained on the list in 2010.

Startups also have declined in high technology. John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland reports that there are fewer startups in high technology and information-processing since 2000, as well as fewer high-growth startups--annual employment growth of more than 25%--across all sectors. Even more troubling is that the smaller number of high-growth startups is not growing as quickly as in the past.


. . .


Surveys by John Dearie and Courtney Gerduldig, authors of "Where the Jobs Are: Entrepreneurship and the Soul of the American Economy" (2013), show that entrepreneurs report being hamstrung by difficulties in finding skilled workers, by a complex tax code that penalizes small business, by regulations that raise the costs of doing business, and by difficulties in obtaining financing that have worsened since 2008.



For the full story, see:

EDWARD C. PRESCOTT and LEE E. OHANIAN. "Behind the Productivity Plunge: Fewer Startups; New businesses were created at a 30% lower rate in 2012 than the annual average rate in the 1980s." The Wall Street Journal (Thurs., June 26, 2014): A15.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 25, 2014.)






October 10, 2015

"You Can Recognize the People Who Live for Others by the Haunted Look on the Faces of the Others"




(p. C21) In her first book, "Strangers Drowning," Larissa MacFarquhar, a staff writer for The New Yorker, reports . . . about extreme do-gooders, people whose self-sacrifice and ethical commitment are far outside what we think of as the normal range.


. . .


A line from Clive James's memoir "North Face of Soho" comes to mind. He quotes the journalist Katherine Whitehorn: "You can recognize the people who live for others by the haunted look on the faces of the others."


. . .


(p. C26) It was Kant who observed that, as the author writes, "it was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage."


. . .


Charity begins at home, most of us would agree. Not for many of the people in "Strangers Drowning." In their moral calculus, the goal is to help the most people, even if that means neglecting those close by, even spouses or children.

One of the interesting threads Ms. MacFarquhar picks up is the notion that, for extreme altruists, the best way to help relieve suffering may not be to travel to Africa, let's say, to open a clinic or help build a dam. It is far more noble and effective -- though less morally swashbuckling -- simply to find the highest-paying job you can and give away most of your salary. She finds people who live this way.



For the full review, see:

DWIGHT GARNER. "Books of The Times; Samaritans and Other Troublemakers." The New York Times (Fri., SEPT. 25, 2015): C21 & C26.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date SEPT. 24, 2015, and has the title "Review: 'Strangers Drowning' Examines Extreme Do-Gooders.")


The book under review, is:

MacFarquhar, Larissa. Strangers Drowning: Grappling with Impossible Idealism, Drastic Choices, and the Overpowering Urge to Help. New York: Penguin Press, 2015.






October 9, 2015

Smugglers Respond to Putin's Ban on Cheese




(p. A4) When the Russian government banned dairy products from a host of nations, including the United States and members of the European Union, last year in response to Western economic sanctions imposed over Russia's military meddling in Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin said the restrictions would create a profitable opportunity for domestic industries.

Instead they appear to have created an opening for forgers and smugglers. The "cheese ring" was busted with an estimated $30 million worth of the stuff, nearly 500 tons, according to the Interior Ministry police.



For the full story, see:

NEIL MacFARQUHAR. "A Crackdown in Russia on a Creamy Contraband." The New York Times (Weds., AUG. 19, 2015): A4.

(Note: the online version of the story has the date AUG. 18, 2015, and has the title "Russian Police Get Tough on Illicit Cheese.")






October 8, 2015

Bicycles Emancipated Women




BicycleWomanIn1890s.jpg










"A portrait from the 1890s at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History. Susan B. Anthony said cycling did more to emancipate women than anything else in the world." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.







(p. D1) . . . , Twain promoted the new sport of cycling with characteristic rhubarb tartness. "Get a bicycle," he urged readers. "You will not regret it, if you live."


. . .


The full-bore bicycle fever was brief, and by the early 20th century it had given way to fascination with the automobile. Yet, as a new exhibit at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History makes clear, the impact of the bicycle on the nation's industrial, cultural, emotional and even moral landscape has been deep and long lasting.

In addition to air-filled rubber tires, we can thank the bicycle for essential technologies like ball bearings, originally devised to reduce friction in the bicycle's axle and steering column; for wire spokes and wire spinning generally; for differential gears that allow connected wheels to spin at different speeds.

And where would our airplanes, tent poles and lawn furniture be without the metal tubing developed to serve as the bicycle frame? "The hollow steel tube is a great form," said Jim Papadopoulos, an assistant teaching professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at Northeastern University in Boston. "It's tremendously structurally efficient, light and strong, and it came into being for the bicycle."


. . .


(p. D4) Bicycles also gave birth to our national highway system, as cyclists outside major cities grew weary of rutted mud paths and began lobbying for the construction of paved roads. The car connection goes further still: Many of the bicycle repair shops that sprang up to service the wheeling masses were later converted to automobile filling stations, and a number of pioneers in the auto industry, including Henry Ford and Charles Duryea, started out as bicycle mechanics. So, too, did the Wright brothers.

"The pre-story is so important," said Eric S. Hintz, a historian with the Smithsonian's Lemelson Center for the Study of Invention and Innovation. "You don't get automobiles unless you first have bikes."


. . .


By the mid-1890s, some 300 American companies were churning out well over a million bicycles a year, making the safety bike one of the first mass-produced items in history. Among the most exuberant customers were women, who discovered in the bicycle a sense of freedom they had rarely experienced before.


. . .


Bicycles allowed young men and women to tool around the countryside unsupervised, and relationships between the sexes grew more casual and spontaneous. With a bicycle at her disposal, a young woman could also venture forth in search of work.

Small wonder that Susan B. Anthony said of cycling, "I think it has done more to emancipate women than any one thing in the world."



For the full story, see:

NATALIE ANGIER. "Basics; A Ride to Freedom." The New York Times (Tues., JULY 14, 2015): D1 & D4.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date JULY 13, 2015, and has the title "Basics; The Bicycle and the Ride to Modern America.")






October 7, 2015

Analyst Conflict of Interest in Predicting Tesla Stock Price




(p. A1) Just like the Internet stocks of yore, Tesla has its own Wall Street cheerleader: Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's auto analyst. Jonas could not be less interested in mundane factors like earnings per share; indeed, he has had to lower his 2015 earnings estimates several times; he now predicts the company will lose $2.70 a share. But never mind: In the future that he envisions, Tesla will be the most important car company on earth.

Just a few weeks ago, in fact, Jonas raised his share price target for Tesla from $280 to $465, which would make Tesla more valuable than General Motors or Ford. Had anything fundamental changed for Tesla? Of course not!

Jonas based his new target on something he labeled Tesla Mobility, which he describes as "an app based, on-demand mobility service." Where did he learn about Tesla Mobility? Who knows? Tesla, a company hardly averse to hype, has never acknowledged its existence.

And that's not the worst of it. No, the worst is the timing of his call. It came days after Tesla announced that it would be issuing stock to raise yet more money -- and that Morgan Stanley was among the underwriters. (The company raised close to $800 million.)



For the full commentary, see:

Joe Nocera. "The Tesla Cheerleader." The New York Times (Sat., AUG. 29, 2015): A1 & A19.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date AUG. 28, 2015.)






October 6, 2015

"Words Can Obscure Rather than Illuminate"




(p. C6) In his essay "Politics and the English Language," George Orwell shows how language is a tool of political control, how words can obscure rather than illuminate. Mr. Swaim explains how that applies to Mr. Sanford's office. At one point, constituents start writing in to ask whether the governor plans to run for president. While Mr. Swaim is expected to answer the letters, he is also expected to deploy a whole lot of "platitudinous observations" and "superfluous phrases" to say, basically, nothing.

"The trick was to use the maximum number of words with the maximum number of legitimate interpretations," he writes. "Words are useful, but often their meanings are not. Sometimes what you want is feeling rather than meaning, warmth rather than content. And that takes verbiage."



For the full review, see:

SARAH LYALL. "Pumpting Up Hot Air to the Governor's Level." The New York Times (Thurs., JULY 30, 2015): C1 & C6.

(Note: the online version of the review has the date JULY 29, 2015, and has the title "Review: In 'The Speechwriter,' Barton Swaim Shares Tales of Working for Mark Sanford.")


The book under review, is:

Swaim, Barton. The Speechwriter: A Brief Education in Politics. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015.






October 5, 2015

Belgian Government Mandates Mayo to Be No Less than 80% Fat




(p. A1) BRUSSELS--Mayonnaise here is a sauce celebre, so important that a 60-year-old royal decree governs what goes in it.


. . .


Belgian mayonnaise must contain at least 80% fat and 7.5% egg yolk. European rivals are permitted to sell mayo with a mere 70% fat and 5% egg yolk.



For the full story, see:

TOM FAIRLESS. "No Yolk, Belgian Food Producers Fed Up with Mayonnaise Rules; But effort to relax royal recipe doesn't go down well with chefs; yellow peas." The Wall Street Journal (Mon., Sept. 20, 2015): A1 & A10.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Sept. 20, 2015 and the title "In Belgium, Mayonnaise Makers Want a New Recipe; But effort to relax royal recipe doesn't go down well with chefs; yell;ow peas.")






October 4, 2015

New Evidence Says Scientists Must "Start from Scratch" on Computer Weather Models




PlutoArmosphere2015-08-16.jpg"An image of Pluto's atmosphere, backlit by the sun, captured by the New Horizons spacecraft as it zipped past the planet." Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.



(p. A13) Confounding expectations, Pluto's atmosphere has actually thickened over the last 26 years, and many planetary scientists changed their minds. Maybe the atmosphere would persist throughout Pluto's 248-year orbit, they speculated.

Now the story appears to be changing again. New Horizons obtained a snapshot of the structure of the atmosphere by looking at distortions in radio signals sent from Earth passing through Pluto's atmosphere.

What the new measurement "seems to have detected is a potential for the first stages of that collapse just as New Horizons arrived," Dr. Stern said. "It would be an amazing coincidence, but there are some on our team who would say, 'I told you so.' "

Even if the atmosphere is collapsing, though, the view from the night side of Pluto is, at present, spectacularly hazy. A photograph showing a silhouette of Pluto surrounded by a ring of sunlight "almost brought tears" to the atmospheric scientists, Dr. Summers said, showing sunlight scattered by small particles of haze up to 100 miles above the surface.

"This is our first peek at weather in Pluto's atmosphere," he said.

Computer models had suggested that the haze would float within 20 miles of the surface, where temperatures are about minus 390 degrees Fahrenheit. Instead, the haze particles formed higher, 30 to 50 miles up, where temperatures are balmier, around minus 270.

"We're having to start from scratch to understand what we thought we knew about the atmosphere," Dr. Summers said.



For the full story, see:

KENNETH CHANG. "Pluto's Atmosphere Is Thinner Than Expected, but Still Looks Hazy." The New York Times (Sat., JULY 25, 2015): A13.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the article has the date JULY 24, 2015.)






October 3, 2015

Recent Job Losses from City Minimum Wage Hikes




(p. A13) The city councils in Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have already voted to increase their minimum wage to $15 an hour over several years. For large employers in Seattle, the first increase to $11 from $9.47 took effect in April. In San Francisco a hike to $12.25 from $10.74 began in May. Los Angeles rolled out a minimum wage for hotel workers of $15.37 in July.

It's still early to know how the hikes are affecting the job market, but the preliminary data aren't good. Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute, Adam Ozimek of Moody's Analytics and Stephen Bronars of Edgewood Economics reported last month that the restaurant and hotel industries have lost jobs in all three cities. Mr. Bronars crunched the numbers and discovered that the "first wave of minimum wage increases appears to have led to the loss of over 1,100 food service jobs in the Seattle metro division and over 2,500 restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division." That is a conservative estimate, he notes, as the data include areas outside city limits, where the minimum wage didn't increase.

This comes as no surprise. In 2014 the Congressional Budget Office found that increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour would result in employment falling by 500,000 jobs nationally. By the way, less than 20% of the earning benefits would flow to people living below the poverty line, as University of California-Irvine economist David Neumark has pointed out.



For the full commentary, see:

ANDY PUZDER. "A Post-Labor Day, Minimum-Wage Hangover; The evidence is already coming in: Mandatory increases in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle have cost thousands of jobs." The Wall Street Journal (Tues., Sept. 8, 2015): A13.

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Sept. 7, 2015.)






October 2, 2015

Experts Are Paid "to Sound Cocksure" Even When They Do Not Know




(p. B1) I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," co-written with the journalist Dan Gardner, is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow." (I helped write and edit the Kahneman book but receive no royalties from it.) Prof. Kahneman agrees. "It's a manual to systematic thinking in the real world," he told me. "This book shows that under the right conditions regular people are capable of improving their judgment enough to beat the professionals at their own game."

The book is so powerful because Prof. Tetlock, a psychologist and professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, has a remarkable trove of data. He has just concluded the first stage of what he calls the Good Judgment Project, which pitted some 20,000 amateur forecasters against some of the most knowledgeable experts in the world.

The amateurs won--hands down.


. . .


(p. B7) The most careful, curious, open-minded, persistent and self-critical--as measured by a battery of psychological tests--did the best.


. . .


Most experts--like most people--"are too quick to make up their minds and too slow to change them," he says. And experts are paid not just to be right, but to sound right: cocksure even when the evidence is sparse or ambiguous.



For the full review, see:

JASON ZWEIG. "The Trick to Making Better Forecasts." The Wall Street Journal (Sat., Sept. 26, 2015): B1 & B7.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date Sept. 25, 2015.)


The book under review, is:

Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown, 2015.






October 1, 2015

Evidence Minimum Wage Causes Job Loss




(p. A1) Some economists have reported that there is no longer any evidence that raising wages will cost jobs.

Unfortunately, that last claim is inaccurate. There are in fact many studies on each side of the issue. David Neumark of the University of California, Irvine and William Wascher of the Federal Reserve have done their own studies and point to dozens of others showing significant job losses.

Recently, Michael Wither and Jeffrey Clemens of the University of California, San Diego looked at data from the 2007 federal minimum-wage hike and found that it reduced the national employment-to-population ratio by 0.7 percentage points (which is actually a lot), and led to a six percentage point decrease in the likelihood that a low-wage worker would have a job.

Because low-wage workers get less work experience under a higher minimum-wage regime, they are less likely to transition to higher-wage jobs down the road. Wither and Clemens found that two years later, workers' chances of making $1,500 a month was reduced by five percentage points.

Many economists have pointed out that as a poverty-fighting measure the minimum wage is horribly targeted. A 2010 study by Joseph Sabia and Richard Burkhauser found that only 11.3 percent of workers who would benefit from raising the wage to $9.50 an hour would come from poor households. An earlier study by Sabia found that single mothers' employment dropped 6 percent for every 10 percent increase in the minimum wage.

A study by Thomas MaCurdy of Stanford built on the fact that there are as many individuals in high-income families making the minimum wage (teenagers) as in low-income families. MaCurdy found that the costs of raising the wage are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Minimum-wage workers often work at places that disproportionately serve people down the income scale. So raising the minimum wage is like a regressive consumption tax paid for by the poor to subsidize the wages of workers who are often middle class.



For the full commentary, see:

David Brooks. "Minimum Wage Muddle." The New York Times (Fri., JULY 24, 2015): A25.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the article has the title "The Minimum-Wage Muddle.")






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