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Low Interest Rates Cannot Substitute for Needed Deeper Reforms



(p. B3) MUMBAI, India -- Three years before the 2008 global financial crisis, an Indian economist named Raghuram G. Rajan presciently warned a skeptical audience of top economic thinkers that excessive risk threatened the entire global financial system.

As Mr. Rajan stepped down on Sunday [Sept. 4, 2016] as India's top central banker, following intense criticism at home, he offered a new warning: Low interest rates globally could distort markets and would be difficult to abandon.

Countries around the world, including the United States and Europe, have kept interest rates low as a way to encourage growth. But countries could become "trapped" by fear that when they eventually raised rates, they "would see growth slow down," he said.

Low interest rates should not be a substitute for "other instruments of policy" and "various kinds of reforms" that are needed to encourage growth, Mr. Rajan said in a recent interview with The New York Times. "Often when monetary policy is really easy, it becomes the residual policy of choice," he said, when deeper reforms are needed.


. . .


In discussing the Indian economy in the interview, Mr. Rajan offered a less-than-ringing endorsement of the government's emphasis on manufacturing in India -- what the prime minister has called his Make in India campaign.

Mr. Rajan said he did not support the view of critics that it was too late in world economic history for India to become a manufacturing hub. But he also said that he would not focus exclusively on manufacturing as the solution to joblessness.

If India improves infrastructure and reduces government regulations, manufacturing might take off in a big way, but it "could also be services. It could be value-added agriculture also."`



For the full story, see:

GEETA ANAND. "A Departing Central Banker's Warning." The New York Times (Mon., SEPT. 5, 2016): B3.

(Note: ellipsis, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date SEPT. 4, 2016, and has the title "Raghuram Rajan, India's Departing Central Banker, Has a New Warning." The online version is somewhat longer than the print version, and has minor differences in the last three paragraphs quoted above. The last three paragraphs quoted above, are from the online version.)






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